8010 Tested & Approved PRM Certification Study Materials
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PRMIA 8010 certification exam covers a wide range of topics related to operational risk management, including risk identification, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring. 8010 exam is divided into two parts – the first part covers theoretical concepts and the second part focuses on practical applications. 8010 exam is computer-based and comprises of 100 multiple-choice questions. Candidates are given three hours to complete the exam.
NEW QUESTION # 134
Which of the following is the most accurate description of EPE (Expected Positive Exposure):
- A. Weighted average of thefuture positive expected exposure across a time horizon.
- B. The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date
- C. The average of the distribution of positive exposures at a specified future date
- D. The maximum average credit exposure over a period of time
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
When a derivative transaction is entered into, its value generally is close to zero. Over time, as the value of the underlying changes, the transaction acquires a positive or negative value. It is not possible to predict the future value of the transaction in advance, however distributional assumptions can be made and potential exposure can be measured in multiple ways. Of all the possible future exposures, it is generally positive exposures that are relevant to credit risk because that is the only situation where the bank may lose money from a default of the counterparty.
The maximum (generally aquantile eg, the 97.5th quantile) exposure possible over the time of the transaction is the 'Potential Future Exposure', or PFE.
The average of the distribution of positive exposures at a specified date before the longest trade in the portfolio is called'Expected Exposure', or EE.
The expected positive exposure calculated as the weighted average of the future positive Expected Exposure across a time horize is called the EPE, or the 'Expected Positive Exposure'.
The price that would be received to sell anasset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date - is the 'fair value', as defined under FAS 157.
Therefore the corect answer is that EPE is the weighted average of the future positive expected exposure across a time horizon.
NEW QUESTION # 135
Once the frequency and severity distributions for loss events have been determined, which of the following is an accurate description of the process to determine a full loss distribution for operational risk?
- A. A firm wide operational risk distribution is set to be equal to the product of the frequency and severity distributions
- B. The frequency distribution alone forms the basis for the loss distribution for operational risk
- C. A firm wide operational risk distribution is generated by adding together the frequency and severity distributions
- D. A firm wide operational risk distribution is generated using Monte Carlo simulations
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Once the frequency distribution has been determined (for example, using the binomial, Poisson or the negative binomial distributions) and the severity distribution has also been determined (for example, using the lognormal, gamma or other functions), the loss distribution can be produced by a Monte Carlo simulation using successive drawings from each of these two distributions. It is assumed that the severity and frequency are independent of each other. The resulting distribution gives a distribution showing the losses for operational risk, from whichthere Op Risk VaR can be determined using the appropriate percentile.Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 136
Which of the following steps are required for computing the aggregate distribution for a UoM for operational risk once loss frequency and severity curves have been estimated:
I. Simulate number of losses based on the frequency distribution
II. Simulate the dollar value of the losses from the severity distribution III. Simulate random number from the copula used to model dependence between the UoMs IV. Compute dependent losses from aggregate distribution curves
- A. All of the above
- B. None of the above
- C. III and IV
- D. I and II
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
A recap would be in order here: calculating operational risk capital is a multi-step process.
First, we fit curves to estimate the parameters to our chosen distribution types for frequency (eg, Poisson), and severity (eg, lognormal). Note that these curves are fitted at the UoM level - which is the lowest level of granularity at which modeling is carried out. Since there are many UoMs, there are are many frequency and severity distributions. However what we are interested in is the loss distribution for the entire bank from which the 99.9th percentile loss can be calculated. From the multiple frequency and severity distributions we have calculated, this becomes a two step process:
- Step 1: Calculate the aggregate loss distribution for each UoM. Each loss distribution is based upon and underlying frequency and severity distribution.
- Step 2: Combine the multiple loss distributions after considering the dependence between the different UoMs. The 'dependence' recognizes that the various UoMs are not completely independent, ie the loss distributions are not additive, and that there is a sortof diversification benefit in the sense that not all types of losses can occur at once and the joint probabilities of the different losses make the sum less than the sum of the parts.
Step 1 requires simulating a number, say n, of the number of losses that occur in a given year from a frequency distribution. Then n losses are picked from the severity distribution, and the total loss for the year is a summation of these losses. This becomes one data point. This process of simulating the number of losses andthen identifying that number of losses is carried out a large number of times to get the aggregate loss distribution for a UoM.
Step 2 requires taking the different loss distributions from Step 1 and combining them considering the dependence between the events. The correlations between the losses are described by a 'copula', and combined together mathematically to get a single loss distribution for the entire bank. This allows the 99.9th percentile loss to be calculated.
NEW QUESTION # 137
For a corporate issuer, which of the following can be used to calculate market implied default probabilities?
I. CDS spreads
II. Bond prices
III. Credit rating issued by S&P
IV. Altman's scoring model
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and III
- C. III and IV
- D. I and II
Answer: D
Explanation:
Generally, the probability of default is an input into determining the price of a security. However, if we know the market price of a security, we can back out the probability of default that the market is factoring into pricing that security. Market implied default probabilities are the probabilities of default priced into security prices, and can be determined from both bond prices and CDS spreads. Credit ratings issued by a credit agency do not give us 'market implied default probabilities', and neither does an internal scoring model like Altman's as these do not consider actual market prices in any way.
Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer and the others are not.
NEW QUESTION # 138
Which of the following objectives are targeted by rating agencies when assigning ratings:
I. Ratings accuracy
II. Ratings stability
III. High accuracy ratio (AR)
IV. Ranked ratings
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and III
- C. III and IV
- D. I and II
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Rating agencies target both accuracy and stability when they assign ratings. These two objectives can sometimes conflict, so a balance needs to be struck between the two. Rating agencies do not target anyparticular 'accuracy ratio' or rankings. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 139
Which of the following statements are true ?
I.Risk governance structures distribute rights and responsibilities among stakeholders in the corporation II. Cybernetics is the multidisciplinary study of cyber risk and control systems underlying information systems in an organization III. Corporate governance is a subset of the larger subject of risk governance IV. The Cadbury report was issued in the early 90s and was one of the early frameworks for corporate governance
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and IV
- C. All of the above
- D. I and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Governance structures specify the policies, principles and procedures for making decisions about corporate direction. They distribute rights and responsibiliies among stakeholders that typically include executive management, employees, the board etc. Statement I is therefore correct.
"Cybernetics is a transdisciplinary approach for exploring regulatory systems, their structures, constraints, and possibilities. In the 21st century, the term is often used in a rather loose way to imply "controlof any system using technology" (Wikipedia). Governance literature has been affected by cybernetics, which is not the same thing as information security or cyber security. Statement II is incorrect.
Corporate governance includes risk governance, and not the other way round. Therefore statement III is incorrect.
The Cadbury Report, titled Financial Aspects of Corporate Governance, was a report issued in the UK in December 1992 by "The Committee on the Financial Aspects of Corporate Governance". The report is eponymous with the chair of the committee, and set out recommendations on the arrangement of company boards and accounting systems to mitigate corporate governance risks and failures. Statement IV is therefore correct.
NEW QUESTION # 140
Which of the following statements is true:
I. When averaging quantiles of two Pareto distributions, the quantiles of theaveraged models are equal to the geometric average of the quantiles of the original models based upon the number of data items in each original model.
II. When modeling severity distributions, we can only use distributions which have fewer parameters thanthe number of datapoints we are modeling from.
III. If an internal loss data based model covers the same risks as a scenario based model, they can can be combined using the weighted average of their parameters.
IV If an internal loss model and a scenario based model address different risks, the models can be combined by taking their sums.
- A. II and III
- B. All statements are true
- C. III and IV
- D. I and II
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is true, the quantiles of the averaged models are equal to the geometric average of the quantiles of the original models.
Statement II is correct, the number of data points from which model parameters are estimated must be greater than the number of parameters. So if a distribution, say Poisson, has one parameter, we need at least two data points to estimate the parameter. Other complex distributions may have multiple parameters for shape, scale and other things, and the minimum number of observations required will be greater than the number of parameters.
Statement III istrue, if the ILD data and scenarios cover the same risk, they are essentially different perspectives on the same risk, and therefore should be combined as weighted averages.
But if they cover completely different risks, the models will need to be added together, not averaged - which is why Statement IV is true.
NEW QUESTION # 141
An investor enters into a 5-year total return swap with Bank A, with the investor paying a fixed rate of 6% annually on a notional value of $100m to the bank and receiving thereturns of the S&P500 index with an identical notional value. The swap is reset monthly, ie the payments are exchanged monthly. On Jan 1 of the fourth year, after settling the last month's payments, the bank enters bankruptcy. What is the legal claim thatthe hedge fund has against the bank in the bankruptcy court?
- A. $0, as all payments on the swap are current
- B. $100m
- C. $6m
- D. The replacement value of the swap
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
According to ISDA standard definitions, the legal claim for OTCderivatives is the current replacement value of the contract. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer. None of the other choices are correct.
NEW QUESTION # 142
When compared to a low severity high frequency risk, the operational risk capital requirement for a medium severity medium frequency risk is likely to be:
- A. Unaffected by differences in frequency or severity
- B. Lower
- C. Higher
- D. Zero
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
High frequency and low severity risks, for example the risks of fraud losses for a credit card issuer, may have high expected losses, but low unexpected losses. In other words, we can generally expect these losses tostay within a small expected and known range. The capital requirement will be the worst case losses at a given confidence level less expected losses, and in such cases this can be expected to be low.
On the other hand, medium severity medium frequency risks, such as the risks of unexpected legal claims,
'fat-finger' trading errors, will have low expected losses but a high level of unexpected losses. Thus the capital requirement for such risks will be high.
It is also worthwhile mentioning high severity andlow frequency risks - for example a rogue trader circumventing all controls and bringing the bank down, or a terrorist strike or natural disaster creating other losses - will probably have zero expected losses & high unexpected losses but only at very highlevels of confidence. In other words, operational risk capital is unlikely to provide for such events and these would lie in the part of the tail that is not covered by most levels of confidence when calculating operational risk capital.
Note that risk capital is required for only unexpected losses as expected losses are to be borne by P&L reserves. Therefore the operational risk capital requirements for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be low when compared to other risks that are lower frequency but higher severity.
Thus Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 143
If A and B be two debt securities, which of the following is true?
- A. The probability of simultaneous default of Aand B is not dependent upon their default correlations, but on their marginal probabilities of default
- B. The probability of simultaneous default of A and B is greatest when their default correlation is +1
- C. The probability of simultaneous default of A and B is greatest when their default correlation is negative
- D. The probability of simultaneous default of A and B is greatest when their default correlation is 0
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
If the marginal probability of default of two securities A and B is P(A) and P(B), then the probability of both of them defaulting together is affected by the default correlation between them. Marginal probability of default means the probability of default of each security on a standalone basis, ie, the probability of default of one security without considering the other security.
The relationship that expresses the probability of joint default of the two is given by the following expression:
It is easy to see that in a situation where the Default Correlation of A & B = 0, ie, the defaults are independent, the combined probability of default is P(A)*P(B), exactly what we would intuitively expect. Also in the other extreme case where the default correlation is equal to 1 and P(A) = P(B) = p, ie the securities behave in an identical way, the expression resolves to just p, which is what we would expect.
From the above relationship, it is clear that the probability of joint default of A and B is the greatest when default correlation between the two is equal to 1, ie the securities behave in an identical way. Therefore Choice
'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 144
There are two bonds in a portfolio, each with a marketvalue of $50m. The probability of default of the two bonds over a one year horizon are 0.03 and 0.08 respectively. If the default correlation is zero, what is the one year expected loss on this portfolio?
- A. $11m
- B. $5.26m
- C. $1.38m
- D. $5.5m
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The probabilities of default of the two bonds are independent (as indicated by a zero default correlation). The various possible states of the portfolio are as follows:
First bond defaults, and the second does not: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.92* $50m = $1.38m Second bond defaults, and the first does not: Probability * Loss = 0.97*0.08 * $50m = $3.88m Both bonds default: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.08 * $100m = $0.24m Thus total expected loss on this portfolio = $5.5m. Since recovery rates are not provided, those should be assumed to be zero.
There is an easier way to solve this as well: default correlation does not affect expected losses, but their volatility. You can calculate the expected losses of the two bonds and add them up, ie, $50m*0.03+ $50m
*0.08 = $5.5m
NEW QUESTION # 145
Which of the following are valid approaches to leveraging external loss data for modeling operational risks:
I. Both internal and external losses can be fitted with distributions,and a weighted average approach using these distributions is relied upon for capital calculations.
II. External loss data is used to inform scenario modeling.
III. External loss data is combined with internal loss data points, and distributions fitted to the combined data set.
IV. External loss data is used to replace internal loss data points to create a higher quality data set to fit distributions.
- A. All of the above
- B. I, II and III
- C. II and IV
- D. I and III
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Internal loss data isgenerally the highest quality as it is relevant, and is 'real' as it has occurred to the organization. External loss data suffers from a significant limitation that the risk profiles of the banks to which the data relates is generally not known due to anonymization, and may likely may not be applicable to the bank performing the calculations. Therefore, replacing external loss data with external loss data is not a good idea. Statement IV is therefore incorrect.
All other approach described are valid approaches for the risk analyst to consider and implement. Therefore statements I, II and III are correct and IV is not.
NEW QUESTION # 146
If the odds of default are 1:5, what is the probability of default?
- A. 16.67%
- B. 12.00%
- C. 50.00%
- D. 20.00%
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Odds are the ratio between the probability of the occurence of an event to the probability that the event does not occur.
If odds are H, then p = H/(1 + H) and H = p/(1-p). In this case the odds are 1:5, or 1/5, therefore the correct answer is Choice 'a', equal to (1/5)/(1 + 1/5) = 1/6 = 16.67%. All other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 147
If the cumulative default probabilities of default for years 1 and 2 for a portfolio of credit risky assets is 5% and 15% respectively, what is the marginal probability of default in year 2 alone?
- A. 10.00%
- B. 11.76%
- C. 15.79%
- D. 10.53%
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
One way to think about this question is this: we are provided with two pieces of information: if the portfolio is worth $100 to start with, it will be worth $95 at the end of year 1 and $85 at the end of year 2. What it isasking for is the probability of default in year 2, for the debts that have survived year 1. This probability is $10/$95 =
10.53%. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
Note that marginal probabilities of default are the probabilities for default for a given period, conditional on survival till the end of the previous period. Cumulative probabilities of default are probabilities of default by a point in time, regardless of when the default occurs. If the marginal probabilities of default for periods 1, 2... n are p1, p2...pn, then cumulative probability of default can be calculated as Cn = 1 - (1 - p1)(1-p2)...(1-pn). For this question, we can calculate the probability of default for year 2 as [1 - (1 - 5%)(1 - 10.53%)] = 15%.
NEW QUESTION # 148
Which of the following statements is true:
I. Recovery rate assumptions can be easily made fairly accurately given past data available from credit rating agencies.
II. Recovery rate assumptions are difficult to make given the effect of the business cycle, nature of the industry and multiple other factors difficult to model.
III. The standard deviation of observed recovery rates is generally very high, making any estimate likely to differ significantly from realized recovery rates.
IV. Estimation errors for recovery rates are not a concern as they are not directionally biased and will cancel each other out over time.
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and IV
- C. II and IV
- D. III and IV
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Recovery rates vary a great deal from year to year, and are difficult to predict. Therefore statement III is true.
Similarly, any attempt to predict these is hamstrung by a high standard error, which can be as high as the historical mean itself. The error does not cancel itself out due to the effect of the business cycle making the error directionally biased. Thus statement IV is false.
Statement II is true as these are all factors that make forecasting recovery rates for any credit risk model ratherdifficult. Statement I is false because recovery rates are difficult to predict and assumptions are not easy to make.
NEW QUESTION # 149
Which of the following statements are correct in relation to the financial system just prior to the current financial crisis:
I. The system was robustagainst small random shocks, but not against large scale disturbances to key hubs in the network II. Financial innovation helped reduce the complexity of the financial network III. Knightian uncertainty refers to risk that can be quantified and measured IV. Feedback effects under stress accentuated liquidity problems
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and IV
- C. III and IV
- D. I and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is correct. The financial system proved to be stable against small shocks and disturbances, or shocksof a particular type (eg, the dotcom crash, the wars in the Persian Gulf); but rather fragile against other types of shocks, including disturbances to key market participants caused by a worsening of mortgage defaults.Statement II is incorrect. Financialinnovation, in particular the slicing and dicing of 'risk' through securitization, significantly increased interrelationships, dependence on the same risk factors, and the complexity of the system as a whole.Statement III is incorrect. A distinction is sometimes made between risk that is knowable, measureable, and quantifiable through parameters; and uncertainty, where the parameters are not known at all. The latter is called 'Knightian uncertainty' after the name of the scholar who came up with the distinction between the two.Statement IV is correct. Feedback effects had the greatest impact on liquidity which was tended to be hoarded, and on asset prices that tumbled as market participants tried to sell assets to become more liquid.Thus, choice is a the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 150
Economic capital under the Earnings Volatility approach is calculated as:
- A. Expected earnings/Specific risk premium for the firm
- B. Earnings under the worst case scenario at a given confidence level/Required rate of return for the firm
- C. Expected earnings/Required rate of return for the firm
- D. [Expected earningsless Earnings under the worst case scenario at a given confidence level]/Required rate of return for the firm
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The Earnings Volatility approach to calculating economic capital is a top down approach that considers economic capital as being the capital required to make for the worst case fall in earnings, and calculates EC as equal to the worst case decrease in earnings capitalized at the rate of return expected of the firm. The worst case decrease in earnings, or the earnings-at-risk can only be stated at a given confidence level, and is equal to the Expected Earnings less Earnings under the worst case scenario.
NEW QUESTION # 151
Under the KMV Moody's approach to credit risk measurement, which of the following expressions describes the expected 'default point' value of assets at which the firm may be expected to default?
- A. Long term debt + 0.5* Short term debt
- B. Short term debt + 0.5* Long term debt
- C. 2* Short term debt + Long term debt
- D. Short term debt+ Long term debt
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
A situation where a firm has more liabilities than assets does not necessarily implydefault, so long as the firm is able to pay its obligations when they come due. Therefore, short term debts have a greater bearing on a firm's default than longer term debt. However, this is not to say that merely having enough to pay off the short term debts (ie debts due within one year) is enough to avoid default. Over time, the long term debt will also be turning to short term debt, and it may not be possible for the firm to roll over its liabilities without lenders considering the long term debt. The KMV approach considers the entire short term debt and half of the long term debt as the critical value of assets below which default will be triggered. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 152
The 99% 10-day VaR for a bank is $200mm. The average VaR for the past 60 days is $250mm, and the bank specific regulatory multiplier is 3. What is the bank's basic VaR based market risk capital charge?
- A. $750mm
- B. $200mm
- C. $250mm
- D. $600mm
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The current Basel rules for the basic VaR based charge formarket risk capital set market risk capital requirements as the maximum of the following two amounts:
1. 99%/10-day VaR,
2. Regulatory Multiplier x Average 99%/10-day VaR of the past 60 days
The 'regulatory multiplier' is a number between 3 and 4 (inclusive) calculated based on the number of 1% VaR exceedances in the previous 250 days, as determined by backtesting.
- If the number of exceedances is <= 4, then the regulatory multiplier is 3.
- If the number of exceedances is between 5 and 9, then the multiplier = 3 + 0.2*(N-4), where N is the number of exceedances.
- If the number of exceedances is >=10, then the multiplier is 4.
So you can see that in most normal situations the risk capital requirement will be dictated by the multiplier and the prior 60-dayaverage VaR, because the product of these two will almost often be greater than the current
99% VaR.
The correct answer therefore is = max(200mm, 3*250mm) = $750mm.
Interestingly, also note that a 99% VaR should statistically be exceeded 1%*250 days = 2.5times, which means if the bank's VaR model is performing as it should, it will still need to use a reg multiplier of 3.
NEW QUESTION # 153
Which of the following belong in a credit risk report?
- A. Largest exposures by counterparty
- B. All of the above
- C. Exposures by country
- D. Exposures by industry
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
All the listed variables are relevant to management monitoring the credit risk profile of an institution, therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 154
Which of the following does not affect the credit risk facing a lender institution?
- A. The state of the economy
- B. The applicability or otherwise of mark tomarket accounting to the institution
- C. Credit ratings of individual borrowers
- D. The degree of geographical or sectoral concentration in the loan book
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The state of the economy, credit quality of individual borrowers and concentration risk are all factors that affect the credit risk facing a lender. Mark to market accounting does not change the credit risk, or the underlying economic reality facing the institution. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 155
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